Index suggests economic growth declined in October
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.49 in October from –0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in October from a neutral value in September.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, fell to –0.20 in October from +0.08 in September. Twenty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 61 made negative contributions. Twenty-seven indicators improved from September to October, while 58 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.33 to the CFNAI in October, down from –0.04 in September. Industrial production decreased 0.6% in October after increasing 0.1% in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.04 in October from a neutral value in September.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in October, down from +0.01 in September. The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in October from 3.8% in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.02 in October from a neutral value in September.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of November 17, 2023. At that time, October data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The September monthly index value was revised to –0.02 from an initial estimate of +0.02, and the August monthly index value was revised to –0.15 from last month’s estimate of –0.22.
Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the September monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the August monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
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