Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Industrial production falls 0.7% in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to –0.49 in December from –0.51 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, but two categories improved from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.33 in December from –0.14 in November.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.13 in December from a neutral value in November. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 45 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from November to December, while 40 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.43 to the CFNAI in December, down from –0.35 in November. Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in December after decreasing 0.6 percent in November. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.01 in December from –0.07 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in December, up from –0.03 in November. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent in December from 3.6 percent in November. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.07 in December from –0.05 in November.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of January 23, 2023. At that time, December data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The November monthly index value was revised to –0.51 from an initial estimate of –0.36, and the October monthly index value was revised to a neutral value from the previous estimate of –0.01. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the November and October monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
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