Index points to a pickup in economic growth in April
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.07 in April from –0.37 in March.
All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from March, but two of the four categories made negative contributions in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.12 in March.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to –0.19 in April from –0.12 in March. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 45 made negative contributions. Fifty-two indicators improved from March to April, while 32 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.15 to the CFNAI in April, up from –0.17 in March. Manufacturing production increased 1.0 percent in April after decreasing 0.8 percent in March. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.04 in April from –0.10 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in April, up slightly from –0.03 in March. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4 percent in April from 3.5 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.04 in April from –0.06 in March.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 23, 2023. At that time, April data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index value was revised to –0.37 from an initial estimate of –0.19, and the February monthly index value was revised to –0.37 from last month’s estimate of –0.19.
Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the March and February monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY MAGAZINE
The March/April issue of Industrial Supply magazine features an in-depth cover story about Joyce Lansdale and Vallen. Plus, we're featuring articles by contributing writers Dirk Beveridge, Frank Hurtte, and David Kahle, as well as interviews with numerous product and distribution industry experts.
