Posted June 9, 2020

PTDA Industry Reports show decline into 2021

Two reports released by the Power Transmission Distributors Association indicate that the industry slowdown will likely last until 2021.

The first quarter 2020 Sales History & Outlook Report (SHOR) indicates the COVID-19 outbreak and oil supply-demand imbalance have resulted in an unprecedentedly steep drop-off in sales across many sectors of the economy.

The PTDA Distributors SHOR Index and Manufacturers SHOR Index will likely reach cyclical lows in early 2021 with a subsequent rise that will last through at least 2022; however, the Indices are not expected to return to the 2019 level during that time.

The PTDA Business Index (a broader overall business metric than the SHOR)—for distributors rose in the first quarter of 2020, reaching 56.1 as did the manufacturer index, up to 41.7, but still indicated manufacturer activity is in decline. Upward momentum in both the PTDA manufacturer and distributor Business Indices will likely be short lived, as the impact of the COVID-19 and oil price black swans will likely be more acute in the second quarter of the year.