Index suggests economic growth declined in May
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.15 in May from +0.14 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.14 in May from –0.20 in April.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to –0.09 in May from –0.14 in April. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 46 made negative contributions. Thirty-eight indicators improved from April to May, while 47 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.09 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.18 in April. Industrial production decreased 0.2% in May after increasing 0.5% in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.05 in May from –0.10 in April.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.07 in April. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in May from 3.4% in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to +0.02 in May from –0.01 in April.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of June 20, 2023. At that time, May data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.
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