Index points to economic growth
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in September from –0.14 in August.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.05 in September from –0.15 in August. Forty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 37 made negative contributions and one made a neutral contribution.
Fifty-eight indicators improved from August to September, while 26 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.03 to the CFNAI in September, up from –0.10 in August. Manufacturing production increased 0.4% in September after decreasing 0.1% in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.01 in September from –0.06 in August.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in September, up slightly from a neutral contribution in August. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.01 in September from –0.06 in August.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 19, 2023. At that time, September data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.
The August monthly index value was revised to –0.22 from an initial estimate of –0.16, and the July monthly index value was revised to +0.20 from last month’s estimate of +0.07. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the August monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the July monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY MAGAZINE
The November/December issue of Industrial Supply magazine features an in-depth cover story about Kimball Midwest. Plus, we're featuring articles by contributing writers Dirk Beveridge, Frank Hurtte, and Mike Marks, as well as interviews with numerous product and distribution industry experts.
