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Posted April 24, 2023

Index points to steady economic growth in March

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at –0.19 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and two categories deteriorated from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in March from –0.09 in February.


Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.04 in February. Manufacturing production decreased 0.5 percent in March after increasing 0.6 percent in February.

The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.02 in March from –0.09 in the previous month.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.09 in February. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent in March from 3.6 percent in February. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.10 in March from –0.05 in February.

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