Index suggests slower economic growth in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and all four categories made negative contributions in August.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.14 in August from –0.15 in July. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to –0.04 in August from –0.01 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from July to August, while 49 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in August, down from +0.12 in July. Industrial production moved up 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.7% in the previous month.
The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.03 in August from –0.04 in July. The contribution of employment-related indicators to the CFNAI was unchanged at –0.04 in August. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.08 in August from +0.03 in July.
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