Production-related indicators fall to –0.19 in February
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.19 in February from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.02 in February from –0.07 in January. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from January to February, while 52 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.15 in January. Manufacturing production ticked up 0.1 percent in February after rising 1.3 percent in January.
The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.02 in February from –0.12 in the previous month. Employment-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.10 in January.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6 percent in February from 3.4 percent in January. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.08 in February from +0.10 in January. CFNAI-MA3 and Inflation Cycles
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