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Posted April 20, 2020

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in recessionary territory

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to –4.19 in March from +0.06 in February.


All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and three of the four categories decreased from February.

The index’s three-month moving average decreased to –1.47 in March from –0.20 in February. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a value below –0.70.

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